The biggest factors behind Q2 2026 disruptions:
- A surge in airline operational issues, including insolvencies, base closures and route suspensions
- Continued Middle East geopolitical tensions and regional airspace restrictions
- Ongoing industrial action at airlines and airports, particularly across Italy, Spain and Argentina
- Localised weather events across Europe and Asia
Kiwi.com data revealed the number of disrupted bookings rising 140% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. However, when comparing the previous quarter which was impacted by Middle East airspace closure the number of disruptions in Q2 dropped. The quarter continued to be affected by the geopolitical events in the Middle East, but the largest cause of disruptions came from a rise in airline operational failures.
Top causes of flight disruptions | Q2 2026
KEY CAUSES OF DISRUPTIONS
% OF TOTAL Q2 2026*
% OF TOTAL Q2 2025
Airline Operational Issues
48.07%
2.94%
Geopolitics/War/Terrorism
41.93%
84.76%
Industrial Action
7.40%
5.37%
Weather
1.25%
0.59%
Other (Uncategorized)
1.15%
4.77%
Natural Disasters
0.16%
0.42%
Airport Closures
0.04%
0.17%
ATC Restrictions
0.01%
0.99%
*) Q2 2026: 140% increase in number of disrupted bookings year on year
Airline operational failures became the leading cause
Although disruptions were down when compared to the previous quarter, the defining shift in Q2 2026 was the rise of airline operational issues, which became the single biggest cause of disruption for Kiwi.com customers at just over 48% of affected journeys, up from under 3% in the same period a year earlier. The quarter was shaped by a series of airline financial difficulties and network changes: Spirit Airlines ceased operations in May, FlyOne cancelled flights to and from Bucharest and Chișinău, Flybondi in Argentina reported financial difficulties, and Moldova saw a wave of local carrier cancellations. Several carriers ceased or scaled back operations, including Jetstar Asia, Lufthansa CityLine and Norse Atlantic’s Los Angeles services, while Wizz Air closed its Vienna base and suspended its Budapest–Dubai route.
Tom Parry, Head of Business Resilience, Kiwi.com, commented on the findings: “Q2 showed a different pattern to the start of the year. Airline operational failures - insolvencies, base closures and sudden route suspensions - became the dominant cause of disruption for our customers. These events are exactly the kind of unpredictable shocks the Kiwi.com Guarantee is built for. Across the quarter we paid out over €10.4 million in immediate credits and refunds so that affected travellers could rebook and help them to reach their destinations without delay.”
Middle East tensions remained a major factor
Geopolitical events connected to the Middle East remained a significant driver of disruption in Q2 2026, accounting for almost 42% of affected journeys for Kiwi.com customers. While this is a smaller share than in Q1, the impact was still substantial in absolute terms. Iran–Israel military action and associated regional monitoring across Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Lebanon, Syria, Kuwait and Iraq caused repeated airspace and routing disruption throughout the quarter, and these events carried the highest compensation costs of any category.
Industrial action persisted across Europe and the Americas
Strikes made up just over 7% of disruptions affecting Kiwi.com customers in Q2 2026, remaining a consistent background factor throughout the quarter. Italy saw repeated general, national and aviation-specific strikes, including shorter four-hour stoppages. Spain was affected by Groundforce and baggage-handling strikes, and Argentina experienced national and air traffic control strikes. Aviation-specific action included a Lufthansa and Eurowings pilot strike, Belgian air traffic controller and national strikes, and ground-handling and airport strikes across France, Portugal and Finland.
Weather and airport-level disruptions
Weather accounted for just over 1% of disruptions in Q2 2026, a smaller factor than in previous quarters but still the cause of real disruption for some travellers, with localised events affecting airports including Munich, Palma de Mallorca, Istanbul and Madrid, alongside typhoon activity in Japan. A handful of airport-level events also affected Kiwi.com travellers during the quarter, including radar and air traffic control issues, temporary closures and security incidents at airports such as Geneva, Marseille, Zakynthos and Milan Bergamo.
Reflecting on the quarter, Tom Parry, Head of Business Resilience, Kiwi.com said: “Q2 was a reminder that disruption can come from many directions at once – from airline failures to geopolitics, strikes and weather. What matters in those moments is having something in place that supports customers immediately. The Kiwi.com Guarantee and our disruption protection paid out over €10.4 million in immediate credits and refunds to travellers affected this quarter, and that is a measure of how seriously we take the commitment to bring our customers peace of mind when booking with Kiwi.com.”
Categorisation of causes of flight disruptions
For the purposes of this report and further internal analyses, the various events causing flight disruptions are grouped into multiple categories designed to be as comprehensive as possible.
Airline Operational Issues
Operational issues include airline insolvency, the cancellation of previously announced routes, base closures, and aircraft maintenance issues. In Q2 2026, these included Spirit Airlines’ ceasing operations, FlyOne cancellations to and from Bucharest and Chișinău, Flybondi financial difficulties, Moldova carrier cancellations, and Wizz Air closing its Vienna base and suspending its Budapest–Dubai route.
Airport Closures
Any event that causes unplanned full or partial closure of an airport. In Q2 2026, this included temporary closures and security incidents at airports such as Zakynthos, Marseille, Milan Bergamo and Kuala Lumpur.
Geopolitics / War / Terrorism
Geopolitical impacts cause disruptions by affecting which airspace airlines are permitted to use, whether certain routes are closed or restricted, security rules and border controls, and the stability of regions that aircraft fly through. In Q2 2026, this category covers Iran–Israel military action and associated regional monitoring across the Middle East.
Industrial Action
Any disruption caused by airport or airline staff strikes, aviation-specific action such as air traffic control strikes, or national and general strikes. In Q2 2026, examples include repeated Italian general and aviation strikes, Spanish Groundforce and baggage-handling strikes, a Lufthansa and Eurowings pilot strike, Belgian air traffic controller and national strikes, and Argentine national and air traffic control strikes.
Natural Disasters
Extreme events such as wildfires, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, mudslides, landslides or flooding. In Q2 2026, this category accounted for a very small share of disruption, with isolated events including a Venezuela earthquake and Catania volcanic activity.
Weather
Significant weather events impacting air travel. In Q2 2026, these included localised disruption at airports such as Munich, Palma de Mallorca, Istanbul and Madrid, alongside typhoon activity affecting Japan.
ATC Restrictions
Disruption caused by air traffic control capacity constraints, technical failures or restrictions. In Q2 2026, this was a very small category, including radar and ATC technical issues at airports such as Geneva, Naples and Venice.
Uncategorised (Other)
The uncategorised category covers any disruption event that sits outside the key categories above. In Q2 2026, this category made up just over 1% of total disruption, a marked contrast to the same period in 2025, when a series of one-off IT incidents and other events pushed the same category close to 5%.
About Kiwi.com
Kiwi.com is a leading travel technology company and online travel agency that helps travelers find the best flight deals across millions of routes. Kiwi.com offers a unique combination of low fares and peace of mind through the Kiwi.com Guarantee, providing support and protection when travel plans change.